- Will the median home value in the US be less than $403,000 on December 31?20¢20 %
- Will the median home value in the US be between $403,000 and $407,000 on December 31?39¢39 %
- Will the median home value in the US be between $407,000 and $411,000 on December 31?37¢37 %
- Will the median home value in the US be between $411,000 and $415,000 on December 31?6¢6 %
- Will the median home value in the US be between $415,000 and $419,000 on December 31?2¢2 %
- Will the median home value in the US be between $419,000 and $423,000 on December 31?<1¢<1 %
- Will the median home value in the US be at least $423,000 on December 31?<1¢<1 %
- 1 %20,3 %<$403KObjem 5,8 tis. $
- 1 %38,5 %$403K - $407KObjem 17,7 tis. $
- 3 %37 %$407K - $411KObjem 17,4 tis. $
- 2 %6,3 %$411K - $415KObjem 3,1 tis. $
- 1,9 %$415K - $419KObjem 6,4 tis. $
- 0,4 %$419K - $423KObjem 5,9 tis. $
- 0,2 %$423K+Objem 1,6 tis. $
Elevated 30-year mortgage rates near 7.3% and rising housing inventory have emerged as the dominant forces shaping trader positioning in the December 31 U.S. median home value market. September 2026 NAR data showed the median existing-home sales price at $417,500, yet more timely Redfin readings through early November indicate the first year-over-year declines in over three years, with medians near $388,600–$389,600 amid 4.5–4.8 months of supply. Zillow’s typical value index stood at $366,157 in September, up just 1.2% annually, while Cotality reported a 0.3% monthly drop. These developments create tight clustering between the $403K–$407K and $407K–$411K bins, as traders weigh limited near-term rate relief against seasonal year-end dynamics and the November 12 NAR release.
Pravidla
This market will resolve according to the median home value for all property types in the United States on December 31, 2026. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The resolution source will be official data from the Parcl Labs Sales Price Index for the United States (Parcl_ID: 5826765). The settlement price will be calculated by multiplying the published price index value (price per square foot) by 2000, which is the median square footage for homes in the US. Parcl is set to publish this data on December 31, 2026. If no data for December 31 is released by January 10, 2027, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve according to the most recently published data. (see: https://app.parcllabs.com/prediction-market-resolutions/57)