- Will the next Claude Opus model (5.6+) be released on November 6, 2026?5¢5 %
- Will the next Claude Opus model (5.6+) be released on November 7, 2026?<1¢<1 %
- Will the next Claude Opus model (5.6+) be released on November 8, 2026?5¢5 %
- Will the next Claude Opus model (5.6+) be released on November 9, 2026?5¢5 %
- Will the next Claude Opus model (5.6+) be released on November 10, 2026?4¢4 %
- Will the next Claude Opus model (5.6+) be released on November 11, 2026?4¢4 %
- Will the next Claude Opus model (5.6+) be released on November 12, 2026?24¢24 %
- Will the next Claude Opus model (5.6+) be released on November 13, 2026?2¢2 %
- Will the next Claude Opus model (5.6+) be released on November 14, 2026?4¢4 %
- Will the next Claude Opus model (5.6+) be released on November 15, 2026?5¢5 %
- Will the next Claude Opus model (5.6+) be released on November 16, 2026?3¢3 %
- Will the next Claude Opus model (5.6+) be released on November 17, 2026?4¢4 %
- 2 %5,4 %November 6Objem 545,6 $
- 0,3 %November 7Objem 1,8 tis. $
- 4,9 %November 8Objem 305,9 $
- 5,2 %November 9Objem 359,3 $
- 3,8 %November 10Objem 235 $
- 3,7 %November 11Objem 330,8 $
- 7 %23,8 %November 12Objem 768 $
- 2,2 %November 13Objem 249,6 $
- 1 %3,7 %November 14Objem 1,2 tis. $
- 4,8 %November 15Objem 347,9 $
- 3,2 %November 16Objem 275 $
- 4,4 %November 17Objem 329 $
The 37.5% market-implied probability of no Claude Opus (5.6+) release by November 30 reflects the September 22 launch of Opus 5.5 and the lack of any official Anthropic announcements or credible leaks pointing to an early-November follow-up. Opus releases have followed roughly 60-day cycles in 2026, placing the line mid-cycle as of November 6. Recent activity has centered on the 5.5 family, including Sonnet 5.5 in late September and Haiku 5.5 in early October, with no confirmed Opus updates since. Traders appear to weigh the typical cadence and absence of developer-conference or earnings catalysts against the possibility of a compressed timeline, as seen in prior point releases. Any shift would likely require new verified information on internal progress or competitive positioning before month-end.
Pravidla
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Anthropic's next Claude Opus model (5.6+) is made available to the general public. A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Opus" and be designated as version 5.6 or higher, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 5.6 or higher named in the same manner as Claude Opus 5 or Claude Opus 5.5 would qualify, including a new whole-number generation such as Claude Opus 6, while models whose name does not include "Opus" or which retain a version designation below 5.6, such as Claude Opus 5.5, including any rollout, promotion, or snapshot of it, will not qualify. A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.