- Will Meta be the #3 AI Lab at the end of December 2026 (Style Control On)?43¢43 %
- Will Anthropic be the #3 AI Lab at the end of December 2026 (Style Control On)?18¢18 %
- Will OpenAI be the #3 AI Lab at the end of December 2026 (Style Control On)?12¢12 %
- Will Google be the #3 AI Lab at the end of December 2026 (Style Control On)?8¢8 %
- Will Moonshot be the #3 AI Lab at the end of December 2026 (Style Control On)?5¢5 %
- Will Alibaba be the #3 AI Lab at the end of December 2026 (Style Control On)?2¢2 %
- Will DeepSeek be the #3 AI Lab at the end of December 2026 (Style Control On)?2¢2 %
- Will Z.ai be the #3 AI Lab at the end of December 2026 (Style Control On)?2¢2 %
- Will Meituan be the #3 AI Lab at the end of December 2026 (Style Control On)?2¢2 %
- Will Baidu be the #3 AI Lab at the end of December 2026 (Style Control On)?2¢2 %
- Will ByteDance be the #3 AI Lab at the end of December 2026 (Style Control On)?2¢2 %
- Will Thinky be the #3 AI Lab at the end of December 2026 (Style Control On)?2¢2 %
10 %43 %MetaObjem 9,1 tis. $
1 %17,5 %AnthropicObjem 9 tis. $
4 %11,6 %OpenAIObjem 2,5 tis. $
7,8 %GoogleObjem 9,1 tis. $
1 %5,1 %MoonshotObjem 787,4 $
2,2 %AlibabaObjem 395,4 $
4 %2,1 %DeepSeekObjem 329,4 $
2 %Z.aiObjem 268,4 $
2 %MeituanObjem 620,8 $
1,8 %BaiduObjem 310,6 $
1,8 %ByteDanceObjem 288,9 $
1,8 %ThinkyObjem 355,2 $
With leading outcomes clustered near 50% implied probability, traders see a tightly contested race for third place among AI labs by year-end, where no single player has pulled ahead decisively. Meta's modest 47% edge stems from its strong open-source momentum and rapid iteration on large language models, while Anthropic at 23% benefits from consistent safety-focused releases and enterprise traction. OpenAI and Google trail at 13.5% and 6.8%, reflecting intense competition in capability benchmarks and user adoption metrics. Style control features, competitive model releases, and developer ecosystem strength remain key swing factors, with late-year announcements or benchmark results likely to shift sentiment before resolution.
Pravidla
This market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on December 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall?rankBy=labs with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market. Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score. AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking. The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".