- Will AfD win less than 32% of all valid second votes?<1¢
- Will AfD win between 32% and 35% of all valid second votes?26¢
- Will AfD win between 35% and 38% of all valid second votes?47¢
- Will AfD win at least 38% of all valid second votes?22¢
Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern are scheduled to take place on September 20, 2026. This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received by AfD in the specified election. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election. Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the State Returning Officer of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern (Landeswahlleiter Mecklenburg-Vorpommern) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution. If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official Mecklenburg-Vorpommern elections page of the Landesamt für innere Verwaltung (www.laiv-mv.de/Wahlen/Landtagswahlen/2026/).
Recent polling for Mecklenburg-Vorpommern’s September 20 Landtag election places the AfD in the mid-30s, with August surveys from Infratest dimap, Forsa, and INSA showing 35–37 percent support, up sharply from 16.7 percent in 2021. The SPD has narrowed the gap modestly to around 28–32 percent, yet AfD leads remain stable across multiple firms. This narrow clustering around 35–37 percent underpins trader emphasis on the 35–38 percent band, while the slim probability assigned to outcomes above 38 percent or below 32 percent reflects limited recent movement outside that range. No major late-campaign shifts have altered the polling picture in the final fortnight.