- Will fewer than 170 ships transit the Bab el-Mandeb Strait between September 7-September 13?25¢
- Will 170-189 ships transit the Bab el-Mandeb Strait between September 7-September 13?51¢
- Will 190-209 ships transit the Bab el-Mandeb Strait between September 7-September 13?44¢
- Will 210-229 ships transit the Bab el-Mandeb Strait between September 7-September 13?25¢
- Will 230 or more ships transit the Bab el-Mandeb Strait between September 7-September 13?25¢
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from September 7, 2026, through September 13, 2026, inclusive. Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered. This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point. In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources. Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered. The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Ongoing Houthi restrictions on Saudi-linked shipping and elevated Red Sea risks amid regional tensions anchor trader sentiment for Bab el-Mandeb transits in the week of September 7. Market-implied odds cluster tightly between the 170-189 and 190-209 bands, reflecting uncertainty over whether daily crossings stabilize near recent lows of 18-24 vessels or edge modestly higher amid selective exemptions for Chinese tankers. High war-risk premiums above 1% of hull value, sustained rerouting around the Cape, and variable commodity flows from Yanbu continue to suppress volumes below pre-crisis baselines near 60-70 per day. Any near-term shifts in Houthi enforcement or broader de-escalation signals could differentiate the leading outcomes.