- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 23°C or below on September 3?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on September 3?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on September 3?4¢
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on September 3?18¢
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on September 3?28¢
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on September 3?30¢
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on September 3?16¢
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C or higher on September 3?1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on September 3?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on September 3?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on September 3?<1¢
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 3 Sep '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. This market will resolve once data for this date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Recent model consensus and official guidance from the Hong Kong Observatory point to northwest monsoon flow combined with lingering effects from nearby tropical systems keeping skies mostly cloudy and triggering scattered showers on September 3, which caps daytime heating and favors a maximum near 30–31°C. Ensemble forecasts show limited diurnal warming under high humidity and persistent cloud cover, with only brief sunny intervals unlikely to push readings to 32°C or higher. Traders assign the highest implied probabilities to 30°C and 31°C because these align with the latest deterministic and ensemble outputs, while lower outcomes remain possible only if heavier rain develops earlier than expected. Updated HKO bulletins and morning model runs tomorrow will provide the final inputs before the market resolves.