- Will GPT-6 be released by December 31, 2026?70¢
- Will GPT-6 be released by September 30, 2026?35¢
- Will GPT-6 be released by August 31, 2026?1¢
- Will GPT-6 be released by September 15, 2026?17¢
- Will GPT-6 be released by October 31, 2026?48¢
- Will GPT-6 be released by November 30, 2026?55¢
This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI's GPT-6 model is made available to the general public by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." For this market to resolve to "Yes," GPT-6 must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public. GPT-6 refers to a product explicitly named GPT-6 (e.g. ChatGPT-6o would count), or one that is recognized as a successor to GPT-5, similar to the progression from GPT-3 to GPT-4. Products labeled as GPT-5.5 or similar will not count for this market's resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
OpenAI has not released any model named GPT-6, with GPT-5.6 Sol, Terra, and Luna remaining the current flagship family following their July 2026 public rollout after U.S. regulatory clearance. Trader sentiment centers on Astra, OpenAI's publicly named "next major model" announced August 1, which produced notable mathematics advances but triggered a Preparedness Framework disclosure that it may have reached "Critical" cybersecurity capability thresholds. The company has not confirmed whether Astra will carry the GPT-6 designation, ship as a GPT-5 point release, or debut under its own brand, creating uncertainty around what constitutes a qualifying release. Competitive pressure from labs like Anthropic and ongoing government scrutiny of frontier large language models further shape near-term timelines, with markets pricing higher odds for a late-2026 public availability once safety evaluations conclude.