- Will Google have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?8¢
- Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?7¢
- Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?<1¢
- Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?<1¢
- Will Mistral have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?<1¢
- Will Microsoft have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?<1¢
- Will Amazon have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?<1¢
- Will ByteDance have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?<1¢
- Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?70¢
- Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?<1¢
- Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?12¢
- Will Moonshot have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?1¢
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based off the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on December 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Rank" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market. Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system. The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Anthropic's dominant 69.5% market-implied probability reflects its sustained frontier lead through 2026, anchored by the July release of Claude Opus 5, which tops independent benchmarks like the Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index and coding evaluations such as Frontier-Bench while delivering strong enterprise adoption. Recent internal disclosures of an unreleased "Model 2" further capable than Mythos-class systems, heavy use in agentic coding and R&D, and a $965 billion valuation underscore its scaling momentum and safety-gated approach. xAI's 12% odds draw from the mid-August Grok 4.6 launch offering competitive speed and pricing, though it trails on key knowledge and agentic metrics. Other labs like Google and OpenAI lag in current trader consensus due to narrower recent gains relative to Anthropic's trajectory, with limited catalysts expected before year-end.