This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from August 25 12:00 PM ET to September 1, 2026 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total. The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Elon Musk’s X posting rhythm anchors trader sentiment for the August 25–September 1 window, with the 200-239 and 220-239 buckets leading at 13.5% each. Recent daily averages of roughly 30–40 posts, driven by measured engagement around Grok updates, Starlink metrics, and fertility or AI commentary, point to a weekly total near the market’s sweet spot rather than the 500+ peaks seen earlier in 2026. Traders weigh his history of rapid-fire replies and media amplification against a quieter stretch that suggests steadier, business-focused output. Any surprise product reveal or viral thread could shift volume upward before the September 1 close.