The uncompetitive nature of Wyoming’s November 3 Senate contest, with Harriet Hageman holding a projected 33-point lead over James Byrd in a solidly Republican state, anchors trader expectations for turnout near historical midterm levels around 180,000–200,000 votes. An open gubernatorial race introduces a modest wildcard that could modestly lift participation, while typical midterm drop-off from presidential-year totals, limited Democratic mobilization, and variable rural engagement exert downward pressure. Weather on Election Day and patterns in early and absentee ballots remain key variables that could shift final certified totals within the closely matched 170K–210K range without altering the underlying dynamics.
本市场将根据2026年怀俄明州联邦参议员中期选举中投出的有效票总数进行结算。 如果公布的数值恰好处于两个区间之间,本市场将按较高的区间结算。 如果截至 2027年3月31日 23:59 ET,指定选举的结果仍未得到最终确认,本市场将按最低区间结算。 指定选举中所有经认证投给候选人或非候选人选项的选票均计入。被判定无效的选票或空白票不计入。在排序选择制或偏好投票制中,将采用第一轮的总票数。 本市场结算的主要依据为2026年怀俄明州联邦参议员中期选举的官方结果,由负责认证选举结果的州选举主管机构发布;不过,也可采用可信报道所形成的压倒性共识。
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