- 土耳其会在 2026 年安排提前举行总统选举吗？8¢8%
Traders price a 92% chance against Turkey scheduling early presidential elections in 2026 because the ruling AKP-MHP alliance and its advisers are focused on a narrowly timed 2028 vote rather than any immediate snap election. Recent statements from presidential adviser Mehmet Ucum indicate the 2028 elections will likely shift to March or April to activate Article 116 of the constitution, allowing President Erdogan a third term if parliament approves an early call with a 360-vote supermajority. MHP leader Devlet Bahceli has echoed calls for parliament to act at an “appropriate time” to enable this path. The coalition currently holds roughly 326–331 seats and remains short of the required threshold, needing cross-party support that has not materialized. No major political crisis, economic trigger, or official announcement has emerged in recent weeks to justify a 2026 vote, while opposition fragmentation—stemming from court rulings on the CHP, party splits, and legal cases against figures such as Ekrem Imamoglu—reduces immediate pressure for a snap contest. Polling continues to show Erdogan leading potential challengers, consistent with the absence of urgency for elections before year-end. This setup aligns with the trader consensus reflected in the 92% “No” probability.
规则
如果土耳其在市场创建至 2026年12月31日 23:59 ET 期间，正式宣布将在目前预定的 2028 年土耳其总统选举之前举行提前总统选举，则本市场将结算为“是”。否则，本市场将以“否”结算。 符合条件的公告必须是由土耳其政府、土耳其总统府、土耳其大国民议会或土耳其最高选举委员会（YSK）正式发布的公开公告，并确立、批准、安排或正式启动一场将在目前预定的 2028 年选举之前举行的总统选举。 政治人物、政党、媒体或评论人士对提前选举的讨论、提议、谈判、猜测或呼吁，如果没有采取正式行动来安排或启动此类选举，则不符合条件。 如果在结算日期之前正式宣布举行提前总统选举，无论该选举之后是否延期、取消或最终举行，本市场均将结算为“是”。 本市场的主要结算依据为土耳其政府部门或土耳其最高选举委员会（YSK）的官方信息；不过，也可以采用可信报道的一致结论。
机器翻译。如有争议，以原文为准。