- 美国会在2026年给予Flávio Bolsonaro政治庇护吗？26¢26%
Flávio Bolsonaro's recent flight to the United States after Brazil's October 2026 presidential election loss has shaped trader views on a potential 2026 asylum grant. Defying a Supreme Federal Court order to surrender passports amid ongoing money-laundering and corruption probes, the senator and family arrived in Miami on October 28 via a route through Argentina and Ecuador. The Trump administration, via State Department statements, confirmed it would issue visas allowing entry, with President Trump publicly endorsing the move and referencing perceived irregularities in Brazil's election. Allies have floated asylum claims tied to judicial actions by Justice Alexandre de Moraes, though sources note internal administration divisions and the distinction between entry visas and formal political asylum under U.S. criteria. These developments, concentrated in the past 48 hours, underpin the near-even 55% implied probability for approval this year.
规则
如果 Flávio Bolsonaro 在市场创建后至 2026年12月31日 23:59 ET 期间正式获准在美国避难，则该市场结算为“是”。否则，本市场将以“否”结算。 由美国公民及移民服务局（USCIS）或移民法官批准避难，或美国政府公开声明确认 Flávio Bolsonaro 已获准避难，均符合条件。可信报道确认已批准避难也符合条件，包括 Flávio Bolsonaro 或其法律代表的确认。 其他形式的美国移民救济或身份，包括但不限于难民身份、人道假释、临时保护身份、暂缓遣返、《禁止酷刑公约》项下的保护、签证或合法永久居留，均不符合条件，除非同时获准避难。仅提交避难申请、申请尚待处理，或 Flávio Bolsonaro 在美国境内或长期居留美国，均不符合条件。 避难必须在该市场的时间范围内获批，且必须在 2026年12月31日 23:59 ET 前经可信报道确认。之后任何撤销避难、提出上诉或终止避难的情况，都不会影响该市场的结算。 判定依据将是可信报道所形成的共识。
机器翻译。如有争议，以原文为准。