- Spider-Man: Brand New Day 会在 2026 年的本土票房达到 $10亿 吗？10¢10%
Spider-Man: Brand New Day, the fourth Tom Holland-led MCU Spider-Man film directed by Destin Daniel Cretton, opened to a record $360 million domestic in late July 2026 and quickly became the highest-grossing domestic release ever, surpassing Star Wars: The Force Awakens’ $936.6 million mark en route to roughly $958 million as of mid-October. Its theatrical run is now winding down after digital release in early October, with recent weekends contributing only $700k–$1.5 million amid typical late-run drop-offs and screen reductions. Industry tracking and final estimates point to a domestic finish around $960 million—strong enough for multiple records but short of the $1 billion threshold. This performance trajectory, combined with the film’s already-completed theatrical window and limited remaining earnings before year-end, underpins the 77% market-implied probability for “No.” Key swing factors like further re-releases or holdover play appear unlikely given current momentum and competition.
规则
如果《Spider-Man: Brand New Day》的国内票房官方收入在 2026年12月31日 23:59 ET 前超过 $1,000,000,000（十亿美元），该市场将判定为“是”。否则，本市场将以“否”结算。 待截至指定日期的数值最终确定后（即不再是制片厂的估算），将使用该影片在 The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) 页面“Box Office”选项卡中的“Daily Box Office Performance”数据来判定该市场。 如果无法确定结算来源的数据是否为最终数据，本市场将保持开放，直到 https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ 和 https://www.the-numbers.com/ 均确认其最终数据。
机器翻译。如有争议，以原文为准。