- Jeff Bezos会在2028年前进入太空吗？25¢25%
Blue Origin’s suspension of New Shepard suborbital tourism flights since January 2026, with the pause extending at least two years to redirect resources toward lunar landers and New Glenn orbital missions, forms the main driver behind the 74.5% market-implied probability that Jeff Bezos will not reach space again before 2028. Company statements emphasize routine cargo delivery and Artemis program support over crewed suborbital operations, while recent October 2026 updates detail New Glenn recovery timelines after the May test explosion and infrastructure expansions without referencing personal flights for the founder. Historical patterns show Bezos’s sole prior trip occurred in 2021, and no verified crew manifests or mission announcements place him aboard upcoming vehicles through the forecast window. Trader consensus reflects these operational priorities and the absence of near-term personal flight indicators.
规则
如果 Jeff Bezos 在市场创建至 2027年12月31日, 23:59 ET 期间，实际搭乘任何抵达或越过美国太空界线的航空器或航天器，本市场将判定为“是”。否则，本市场将以“否”结算。 美国太空门槛的定义是平均海平面以上 50 英里。Jeff Bezos 是否越过国际公认的卡门线，不会影响本市场的判定结果。 本市场结算的主要依据将是可信报道形成的共识。
机器翻译。如有争议，以原文为准。