- 民主党会赢得所有“core four”参议院选举吗？55¢55%
The market's near-even odds reflect tight polling averages in Maine and Michigan, where Democratic challengers Troy Jackson and Abdul El-Sayed hold slim leads over Republican incumbents Susan Collins and Mike Rogers, balanced against clearer Democratic advantages for Jon Ossoff in Georgia and Roy Cooper in North Carolina. Recent surveys show these four races remain sensitive to turnout among swing voters, economic concerns, and candidate-specific dynamics in the final week before the November 3 election. Strong Democratic performance in the two toss-ups would secure all four wins, while any slippage in Maine or Michigan could prevent a sweep despite favorable positioning elsewhere. Fundraising edges, advertising volume, and voter enthusiasm in these battlegrounds continue to shape trader assessments of the outcome.
规则
如果代表民主党的候选人在佐治亚州、密歇根州、北卡罗来纳州和缅因州的2026年美国参议院中期选举中获胜（包括任何第二轮选举），此市场将以“是”结算。 如果候选人是相关政党提名的人选，则视为代表该党。民主党提名人以外的候选人（例如绿党、自由意志党或独立候选人）均不计入。以独立候选人身份参选的人士不会被视为民主党人，无论他们与该党有任何关联。 本市场的结算依据为美联社、Fox News和NBC。三家消息来源均将所有相关选举判定为同一位候选人获胜后，此市场即会结算。如果三家消息来源未将某场相关选举均判定为同一位候选人获胜，此市场将依据选举结果的官方认证进行结算。
机器翻译。如有争议，以原文为准。