- 2027 年之前会有任何 5 级飓风在美国登陆吗？3¢3%
The 2026 Atlantic hurricane season's pronounced suppression under developing El Niño conditions, which have elevated vertical wind shear across the main development region, stands as the dominant factor behind the 95.9% market-implied probability of no Category 5 landfall in the conterminous United States before 2027. Only one hurricane, Isaias, has formed so far, making landfall as a Category 2 near Destin, Florida, in mid-October amid hostile steering and shear patterns. Historical records show just four such intense U.S. mainland strikes since 1851, underscoring their rarity even in active seasons. With the season nearing its close and official outlooks from NOAA and Colorado State University favoring below-normal activity through November, only an anomalous late-season rapid intensification over unusually warm Gulf waters could alter the outcome.
规则
就本市场而言，5级飓风是指最大持续风速达到或超过 157 mph 的飓风，如 https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php 所述；飓风登陆是指飓风的地表中心与海岸线相交，如 https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL 所述。 如果任何风暴以5级飓风的强度在美国本土相连部分登陆，且该情况载于市场创建至 2026年12月31日、23:59 ET 之间国家飓风中心的官方公告（https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?）中，则本市场结算为“是”。否则，此市场将判定为“否”。 本市场可以根据 NHC 发布的初始公告进行结算，以判定是否有风暴以5级强度在美国本土连续地区登陆，不受任何可能与最初符合条件的公告相矛盾的后续撤回或分析影响。不过，如果后续更正或更新表明发生了符合条件的事件，则会予以考虑。
机器翻译。如有争议，以原文为准。