- 一件艺术品会在 12月31日 前以 $150 百万的价格售出吗？81¢81%
A Jackson Pollock masterpiece fetching $181 million at Christie’s in May 2026 has already cleared the $150 million threshold this year, anchoring the market’s strong 85% implied probability for Yes. Blue-chip demand remains robust, evidenced by Christie’s recent London sales totaling $289 million during Frieze Week, including a heavily guaranteed Peter Simon collection that achieved near its high estimate with exceptional sell-through rates. Precedent from the 2025 Klimt record and steady institutional and private-buyer interest in trophy modern works support expectations that the November New York marquee auctions or a late private transaction could deliver another nine-figure result before year-end. While the art market can be unpredictable at the absolute top end, the combination of an established benchmark sale and positive momentum in guaranteed, high-quality offerings gives traders clear confidence in crossing the line again by December 31.
规则
如果在市场创建日至 2026年12月31日 期间，任何单件拍品在大型拍卖行的公开拍卖中以至少 $150 百万的总价成交（包含买家佣金），本市场将判定为“是”。否则，本市场将以“否”结算。 就本市场而言，以下拍卖行之一将被视为大型拍卖行：Sotheby's. Christie's 或 Phillips。如果截至 2026年12月31日 23:59 ET 仍未有此类拍品的成交报告，本市场将判定为“否”。 本市场将根据各拍卖行官方网站发布的正式售后结果进行判定。如果判定来源永久无法使用，或截至 2026年12月31日 23:59 ET 仍未发布符合条件的报告，本市场将判定为“否”。
机器翻译。如有争议，以原文为准。