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This market will resolve to "Yes" for each listed city that records measurable precipitation on September 4, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Measurable precipitation means 0.01 inches or more as reported by the PRECIPITATION (IN) figure in the NWS Daily Climate Report (CLI) for the city's station. A report of trace ("T") does not qualify. The PRECIPITATION (IN) figure measures total liquid-equivalent precipitation and does not distinguish between precipitation types. The observation period is the NWS climate day for each station: midnight to midnight local standard time. The final CLI report for a climate day is issued the following morning. Each city is an independent market. Any number of cities may resolve "Yes", including all of them or none of them. This market will resolve according to the NWS Daily Climate Report as published by 2:00 PM ET on the day following the observation date. If multiple versions of the report are issued, the last version published before that time governs. If no figure has been published by that time, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is the NWS Daily Climate Report (CLI) for each city's station.
Heavy rainfall from overnight thunderstorms and a passing frontal system on September 4, 2026, concentrated in the Upper Midwest, with National Weather Service observations recording 1.4–6.7 inches across northeast Wisconsin, northern Minnesota, and parts of the Northland, alongside flash flooding in western New York near Buffalo. These localized convective events and steering patterns aligned with model consensus for elevated moisture and instability in those corridors, while much of the Southeast, mid-Atlantic, and Pacific Northwest saw only trace or no measurable precipitation according to station data. Trader sentiment for city-specific outcomes therefore tracks verified daily totals from official networks, with resolution hinging on whether gauges exceeded trace amounts within defined windows; post-event verification from NWS summaries will finalize probabilities without further model updates.