- OpenAI会在2027年之前宣布已实现AGI吗？9¢
Strong trader consensus behind the 91.5% market-implied probability for “No” stems from OpenAI’s lack of any formal announcement claiming AGI achievement, even after the September 2026 launch of GPT-6 Astra. Leadership rhetoric, including President Greg Brockman’s “Welcome to the AGI era” remarks and personal view that “we’re there,” stopped short of the company’s own definition of a system outperforming humans at most economically valuable work. CEO Sam Altman stated in August that OpenAI was “not quite yet” at AGI while projecting an internal system by year-end 2026. Independent evaluations, such as ARC-AGI-3 scores varying sharply by harness and expert skepticism from the ARC Prize Foundation, reinforce that current large language models and agentic capabilities have not crossed widely accepted AGI thresholds. Realistic scenarios that could still shift odds include a surprise formal declaration tied to undisclosed internal progress or a new model release before December 31, 2026.
规则
如果 OpenAI 或该公司的官方代表在 2026年12月31日 ET 前宣布已创造出通用人工智能（AGI），此市场将以“是”结算。否则，本市场将以“否”结算。 此市场结算的主要依据将是 OpenAI 和/或其官方代表发布的官方信息；不过，也会参考可信报道形成的共识。
机器翻译。如有争议，以原文为准。