- 如果 Nothing 有一天发生：十一月88¢88%
Trader consensus assigns an 88.5% implied probability to "Nothing" because no major diplomatic breakthroughs, military escalations, or leadership transitions have materialized or appear imminent within the November resolution window. Ongoing conflicts show no verified ceasefire agreements or new invasions, while scheduled U.S. midterm elections on November 3 involve standard congressional and gubernatorial contests without triggering defined resolution criteria such as regime changes or nuclear events. Recent polling trends and campaign activity remain consistent with historical midterm patterns, offering no evidence of sudden shifts that would alter the low probability of the specified high-impact outcomes. Traders weigh the absence of fresh catalysts against the potential for late-breaking developments, yet current evidence supports the elevated likelihood of no qualifying events.
规则
如果在 2026年11月1日, 0:00 ET 至 2026年11月30日, 23:59 ET 期间满足以下任一条件，本市场将判定为“Something”： - WTI原油（WTI）达到 ↑ $150 - Bitcoin创下历史新高 - 任何一位G7领导人下台（卡尼、马克龙、默茨、梅洛尼、高市、伯纳姆、特朗普） - 美国与伊朗达成最终核协议 - 俄罗斯与乌克兰停火 - 普京不再担任俄罗斯总统 - 泽连斯基不再担任乌克兰总统 - 曼德海峡实际上处于关闭状态 - 霍尔木兹海峡交通恢复正常 否则，此市场将判定为“Nothing”。 本市场的完整规则请见此处： https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/market_products/NEH/November_NEH.pdf
机器翻译。如有争议，以原文为准。