- 到2026年12月31日，下一个Sonnet模型的分数是否会至少达到1480分？46¢
- 下一个 Sonnet 模型是否将在 2026 年 12 月 31 日之前以至少 1470 分的成绩首次亮相？57¢
- 到2026年12月31日，下一个Sonnet模型的分数是否会首次达到至少1490？27¢
- 下一个Sonnet模型将在2026年12月31日前以至少1510分的成绩首次亮相吗？5¢
- 下一个 Sonnet 模型会在 2026 年 12 月 31 日前以至少 1500 分的成绩首次亮相吗？17¢
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the next Anthropic Sonnet model added to the Arena.AI Leaderboard (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) has at least the specified score at 12:00 PM ET on the calendar date following the date on which it first appears on the leaderboard. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Claude Sonnet refers to a model by Anthropic explicitly named Sonnet. Qualifying models include Claude Sonnet 5.1, Claude Sonnet 5.5, Sonnet 6, or any other Sonnet variants. Models under any other name, such as Opus, Haiku, Fable, or Mythos, will not qualify, unless the model is explicitly and officially named Sonnet by Anthropic. Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off will be used to resolve this market. This market will resolve solely based on the specified score in the Score column of the leaderboard, regardless of any underlying granular or unrounded data presented elsewhere. A model marked "AutoEval" will not be considered added to the leaderboard. Only scores displayed without the "AutoEval" label will be considered. If multiple models are added to the leaderboard on the same calendar date (ET), the highest-scoring model will be used for resolution. Models added to the leaderboard on the calendar date following the initial qualifying model's first appearance will not be considered. If a model is first added to the Arena.AI Leaderboard but is subsequently removed and not re-added, such that it is not displayed on the leaderboard at 12:00 PM ET on the calendar date following its first appearance, its appearance will not qualify as added to the Arena.AI Leaderboard. A qualifying model must be newly added to the Arena.AI Leaderboard. Whether the model was previously released, publicly accessible, in beta, or otherwise available before appearing on the leaderboard is irrelevant for this market. The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control. If this resolution source is unavailable at 12:00 PM ET on the calendar date following the date on which the qualifying model first appears on the leaderboard, this market will resolve based on the first subsequent instance at which such a score becomes available on the leaderboard. If it remains unavailable through the end of the seventh day after the qualifying model first appears on the leaderboard or if no qualifying model release occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Anthropic’s Claude Sonnet 5, released June 30, 2026, prioritized agentic tool use, autonomous planning, and coding workflows, debuting strongly on arena.ai Agent and Code leaderboards while landing only mid-tier (#32) on the core Text Arena. This aligns with the company’s consistent emphasis on practical benchmarks over pure text-generation Elo scores, where OpenAI and Google models have traded top spots. No official timeline or preview for a qualifying Sonnet successor has surfaced since the July Opus 5 launch, though Anthropic’s typical four-to-six-month cadence between major Sonnet updates keeps a potential 2026 release in play. Traders are monitoring any surprise capability jumps that could push a new Sonnet above key Text Arena thresholds before the December 31 resolution deadline.