- 2026年会有新冠状病毒大流行吗？2¢2%
Strong market-implied odds favoring no new coronavirus pandemic in 2026 reflect ongoing global respiratory virus surveillance showing stable, low SARS-CoV-2 positivity rates without evidence of a novel strain capable of triggering a WHO-declared pandemic. Recent CDC and WHO updates indicate COVID-19 activity remains regionally elevated in places but declining nationally in the United States, with influenza and RSV levels following typical seasonal patterns and no surge meeting pandemic thresholds. Cumulative case data through mid-2026 and continued monitoring via systems like COVID-NET underscore that current circulation stems from established variants rather than a new emergence. Realistic challenges include the potential for a highly immune-evasive or virulent variant to arise and spread rapidly before year-end, though historical patterns and current low transmissibility signals make such an outcome unlikely within the remaining timeframe.
规则
如果世界卫生组织（WHO）在市场创建至 2026年12月31日、23:59 ET 之间宣布出现一种并非 COVID-19（SARS-CoV-2）的新冠疫情，该市场将结算为“是”。否则，本市场将以“否”结算。 结算依据将是世界卫生组织的官方公告。
机器翻译。如有争议，以原文为准。