- 2026年会发生自然灾害吗？4¢4%
Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 91% implied probability to “No” for a qualifying natural disaster in 2026, reflecting the absence of any Category 5 U.S. hurricane landfall, VEI ≥6 volcanic eruption, 8.5+ magnitude earthquake, or 10-kiloton+ meteor strike through mid-October. A strengthening El Niño, confirmed by NOAA and WMO monitoring, has increased wind shear and suppressed Atlantic tropical cyclone activity, consistent with historical patterns that lower major landfall odds during such phases. USGS records show peak magnitudes well below 8.5 this year, while Smithsonian data indicate all documented eruptions remain at VEI ≤4. NASA fireball monitoring has logged no qualifying bolides. With roughly 10 weeks remaining and typical seasonal frequencies for these extremes, new official forecasts from the National Hurricane Center and ongoing geophysical surveillance represent the main near-term variables that could alter the current market-implied odds.
规则
如果在2026 ET期间满足以下任一条件，本市场将结算为“是”： - 5级飓风在美国登陆 - 大型流星撞击地球（10 kt或以上） - 大型火山喷发（VEI ≥6） - 发生震级为8.5级或以上的地震 否则，此市场将判定为“否”。 如果指定来源提供的必要信息仍未公布，市场可能会保持开放，直至 2027年2月28日, 23:59 ET。 本市场的完整规则请见此处： https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
机器翻译。如有争议，以原文为准。