- Naim Qassem 到 2026年12月31日 前会卸任 Hezbollah 秘书长吗？10¢10%
Naim Qassem remains Hezbollah’s secretary-general as of late October 2026, having assumed the role after Hassan Nasrallah’s 2024 killing and formal election the following month. The group faces sustained external pressure to disarm under the November 2024 ceasefire and June 2026 U.S.-mediated framework agreement, which requires Israeli withdrawal from southern Lebanon, Lebanese army deployment south of the Litani River, and restrictions on Hezbollah’s military capabilities. On October 28, Qassem publicly rejected any disarmament discussion while Israeli forces remain and dismissed recent Israeli election results, reinforcing the organization’s stance. Lebanese authorities have also pursued legal measures tied to seized explosives linked to the group, raising questions about institutional leverage over Hezbollah’s leadership structure. Traders weigh these enforcement timelines, regional diplomacy, and internal Shura Council dynamics when assessing the probability of a leadership transition by the market’s resolution date.
规则
如果 Naim Qassem 在市场创建至指定日期 23:59 ET 之间的任何时间不再担任 Hezbollah 秘书长，则该市场将结算为“是”。否则，本市场将以“否”结算。 如果 Naim Qassem 辞职、被拘留，或以其他方式失去职务，或在本市场的期限内被阻止履行 Hezbollah 秘书长的职责，则视为他已被解除职权。 本市场的主要结算依据将是 Hezbollah 的官方声明；不过，也会参考可信报道形成的共识。
机器翻译。如有争议，以原文为准。