- 2027年之前，LA会发生6.5级或以上的地震吗？5¢5%
Trader consensus heavily favors "No" on a magnitude 6.5+ earthquake within 50 miles of Los Angeles before year-end 2026, reflecting the low baseline annual probability of such events. USGS Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast data indicate roughly a 60% chance of an M6.7+ quake in the broader region over 30 years, translating to an annualized rate of roughly 2-4% near the urban core, consistent with independent models estimating just 0.2% odds for an M6.5+ mainshock in central LA over any single year. Current USGS monitoring shows only routine background seismicity—scattered events below magnitude 4—with no foreshock sequences or strain anomalies on faults such as the San Andreas or Puente Hills. With roughly 2.5 months remaining, this compressed window reinforces the market-implied odds near 96% for "No." An abrupt foreshock swarm or unexpected rupture on a nearby segment remains a low-probability but plausible outlier that could shift outcomes before resolution.
规则
如果在市场创建至 2026年12月31日 23:59 ET 期间，Los Angeles, California（34.0522° N, 118.2437° W）周围半径：50 英里内发生震级为 6.5 或以上的地震，本市场将判定为“是”。否则，本市场将以“否”结算。 本市场的判定来源是 United States Geological Survey (USGS) 地震地图（https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/map/?extent=32.54681,-121.05835&extent=35.63944,-114.90601）。 就本市场而言，震中必须位于距离 Los Angeles（34.0522° N, 118.2437° W）50 英里以内；距离按震中至参考点的直线距离计算。 如果在本市场的时间范围内发生了较大规模的地震，但尚未出现在判定来源中，本市场可以保持开放至 2027年1月7日 23:59 ET，或直到相关地震以其他方式出现在判定来源中。如果截至该日期，该地震仍未出现在结算来源中，则将使用另一个可信的结算来源。
机器翻译。如有争议，以原文为准。