- Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on September 3?<1¢
- Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on September 3?1¢
- Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 32°C or higher on September 3?<1¢
- Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C or below on September 3?<1¢
- Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on September 3?4¢
- Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on September 3?8¢
- Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on September 3?88¢
- Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on September 3?<1¢
- Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on September 3?<1¢
- Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on September 3?<1¢
- Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on September 3?<1¢
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 Sep '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspd If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source. In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C. This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Recent forecast models for Shanghai on September 3, 2026, show minimum temperatures clustering around 24–27°C, driven by persistent cloud cover, light rain or drizzle, and northeasterly winds that limit nighttime radiative cooling under high humidity. These conditions, typical of early September subtropical patterns without an advancing cold front, keep overnight lows elevated compared to historical September averages near 20–22°C. Multiple sources, including official Chinese meteorological updates and international models, consistently project 25–27°C lows amid 78–90% precipitation chances, supporting the market’s strong 85.5% implied probability on 27°C while assigning low odds to cooler thresholds. Updated model runs and surface observations through September 2 reinforce this warm, stable regime ahead of resolution.