- 2026年大西洋飓风季期间，飓风数量会是：1-3吗？97¢97%
- 2026 年大西洋飓风季期间，飓风数量会是：4-6 吗？2¢2%
- 2026年大西洋飓风季期间会有名为 7+ 的飓风吗？<1¢<1%
Strong El Niño-driven wind shear has kept Atlantic hurricane formation minimal through mid-October 2026, leaving only one hurricane (Isaias) so far and supporting the market’s overwhelming 97.6% implied probability on a 1–3 total. The season produced nine named storms by October 15, but eight remained tropical storms amid persistently high vertical wind shear and drier mid-level air tied to a strong super El Niño. Isaias became the first and only hurricane on October 7–8 in the Gulf of Mexico—the latest first hurricane in the satellite era—and briefly reached major (Category 3) strength before landfall. Official National Hurricane Center tracking and accumulated cyclone energy (ACE) stand at just 18 units, roughly 83% below the 1991–2020 average. Historical analogs from prior super El Niño years show very low odds of additional hurricanes after early October, with the season typically winding down quickly. The November window remains open, but model consensus and steering patterns favor limited development. A realistic challenge to the 1–3 range would require an unusually favorable late-season window—such as reduced shear coinciding with a Gulf or western Caribbean disturbance—yet current conditions and climatology make even a second hurricane unlikely.
规则
本市场将根据市场创建至 2026年11月30日 23:59 ET 期间，大西洋被归类为飓风的风暴数量结算。 如果指定时间段内大西洋没有被归类为飓风的风暴，本市场将按“0”结算。 飓风是最大持续风速达到或超过 74 mph 的热带气旋（萨菲尔-辛普森飓风风力等级的 1 级或以上），具体说明见 https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php。 本市场可根据 NHC 首次发布、报告符合条件飓风的公告进行结算，不受任何后续公告、撤回、最佳路径修订或重新分析的影响，即使这些内容下调了该风暴的强度亦然。官方数量将根据 NHC（nhc.noaa.gov）的公告确定。
机器翻译。如有争议，以原文为准。