- 1 月的 Fed 决策会不会无人持异议？54¢54%
- 1月的美联储决议会有人持异议吗？19¢19%
- 会有两人对美联储1月的决定持异议吗？5¢5%
- 会有三人反对美联储1月的决定吗？13¢13%
- 会有四人或以上对美联储1月的决定持异议吗？6¢6%
Trader consensus on zero dissents at the January 26-27, 2027 FOMC meeting (57% implied probability) reflects the recent shift toward greater policy alignment after the September 2026 unanimous 25-basis-point hike to the 3.75-4.00% federal funds target range. Persistent inflation above the 2% goal—core PCE near 3% and headline measures around 3.4-3.7%—combined with a stable labor market (unemployment near 4.1-4.2%) has supported a hawkish tilt, with most participants viewing another increase as likely appropriate by year-end. Recent meetings show mixed but contained splits: multiple dissents occurred earlier in 2026 (including 9-3 in July favoring hikes), yet the September vote unified around risk-management tightening amid AI-driven demand pressures and energy shocks. Market-implied odds favor consensus because incoming October and December data, plus the October 27-28 and December 8-9 decisions, could reinforce or erode that unity before the January meeting. Elevated uncertainty around the exact pace of further tightening keeps smaller probabilities on one or three dissents, consistent with the committee's historical pattern of infrequent large fractures when the median path aligns with incoming releases.
规则
1 月联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）会议定于 2027年1月26日 – 27日 举行。政策决定将于 1月27日 东部时间 14:00 公布，随后美联储主席将在约 14:30 ET 举行新闻发布会。 本市场将根据联邦公开市场委员会 1 月货币政策会议记录的异议票数结算，具体而言，是对联邦基金利率决策投下异议票的票数。 本市场的结算依据是FOMC在其定于 2027年1月26日 – 27日 举行的会议后发布的声明，日期以官方日历为准：https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm。 FOMC 发布其 1 月会议相关数据的声明后，本市场即可结算；不过，也会参考可信报道形成的共识。
机器翻译。如有争议，以原文为准。