- 9月4日上海的最高气温会在25°C或以下吗？<1¢
- 9月4日上海最高气温会是26°C吗？<1¢
- 9月4日上海的最高气温会是27°C吗？<1¢
- 9月4日上海的最高气温会是28°C吗？<1¢
- 9月4日上海的最高气温会是29°C吗？4¢
- 9月4日上海的最高气温会达到30℃吗？29¢
- 9月4日上海的最高气温会是31°C吗？57¢
- 9月4日上海的最高气温会达到32°C吗？12¢
- 9月4日上海最高气温会达到33°C吗？<1¢
- 9月4日上海的最高气温会达到34°C吗？<1¢
- 9月4日上海的最高气温会达到或超过35°C吗？<1¢
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Sep '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspd If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source. In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C. This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Current numerical weather prediction consensus from sources including the Met Office, local Shanghai forecasts, and global models shows a daytime maximum of 30–31°C on September 4, driven by lingering tropical moisture, northeast winds at 15–25 km/h, and high humidity near 70–85% that favors scattered showers or thunderstorms. These conditions typically moderate peak heating through cloud cover and evaporative cooling, keeping temperatures close to early-September climatology while preventing extremes. Recent model runs through September 3 have shown minimal shifts in the 30–31°C range, supporting the market’s heavy weighting toward these outcomes (combined ~87.5% implied probability) amid typical forecast uncertainty from precipitation timing.