- Hengam岛会在10月31日前不再受伊朗控制吗？<1¢<1%
- Hengam岛会在12月31日前不再受伊朗控制吗？4¢4%
US-Israeli strikes have repeatedly targeted Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps positions and military infrastructure on Hengam Island in the Strait of Hormuz during 2026 escalations, including reported attacks in July and earlier months, alongside broader strikes on related oil and coastal facilities. These actions have caused localized damage, oil pollution affecting nearby islands, and displacement of residents, yet official reports and satellite observations confirm continued Iranian administrative and military authority without any verified occupation, seizure, or transfer of sovereignty. Trader sentiment reflects the island’s strategic value for Hormuz shipping lanes and Iranian defenses, balanced against the absence of ground operations or diplomatic shifts capable of altering control by resolution deadlines. Ongoing naval tensions and potential further strikes remain key variables within the current conflict window.
规则
如果到指定日期 23:59 ET，Hengam 岛不再由伊朗控制，则此市场将以“是”结算。否则，本市场将以“否”结算。 “不再由伊朗控制”是指伊朗不再对 Hengam 岛行使主要的政府或军事控制，且另一个国家、占领军或得到国际支持的当局已在该岛建立控制。 临时袭击、零星登陆、特种行动、轰炸、破坏活动、近海海军存在，或伊朗活动受到暂时干扰，单独而言均不符合条件。 如果没有实际建立控制权，仅仅宣布、威胁或声称伊朗已失去控制权，均不符合条件。 如果控制权因谈判达成的协议、停火条款、投降或移交协议而发生变化，则只有在该岛上实际建立控制权后，才符合条件。 如果截至结算日期，对 Hengam 岛的控制仍有争议、情况不明、存在争议或尚未充分确立，则不符合条件，此市场将以“否”结算。 主要结算依据将是相关政府和军方的官方声明，以及可信报道所形成的共识。
机器翻译。如有争议，以原文为准。