- 2026年会爆发汉坦病毒大流行吗？2¢2%
Hantavirus outbreaks remain driven by rodent reservoirs and aerosolized exposure to urine, droppings, or saliva, with the Andes virus as the sole strain showing limited human-to-human transmission only under prolonged close contact. Recent 2026 clusters in Argentina (over 100 seasonal cases) and Chile, including the contained MV Hondius cruise ship event with 11–13 cases and three deaths, demonstrate localized zoonotic spillover rather than sustained community spread, consistent with CDC and WHO data showing no pandemic-capable traits. Official alerts emphasize prevention and surveillance without epidemic declarations. While model projections or unexpected viral adaptation could theoretically alter dynamics, current epidemiological patterns and absence of efficient airborne or casual transmission underpin the 98.7% market-implied probability against a 2026 pandemic.
规则
如果世界卫生组织在市场创建至 2026年12月31日, 23:59 ET 之间的官方公开通信中，明确将汉坦病毒、汉坦病毒肺综合征（HPS）、肾综合征出血热（HFRS）或与汉坦病毒相关的疫情称为“全球大流行”，则该市场将判定为“是”。否则，本市场将以“否”结算。 明确称述包括世卫组织的官方声明、报告、新闻简报或出版物，且其中清楚地将疫情描述为“全球大流行”。仅宣布国际关注的突发公共卫生事件（PHEIC）并不符合条件，除非同时将其描述为大流行。 该市场判定的主要依据将是世卫组织的官方通报。也可以采用可信报道形成的共识。
机器翻译。如有争议，以原文为准。