- 法国会在 2027年12月31日 前拖欠债务吗？7¢7%
France faces elevated fiscal pressures, with public debt near 119% of GDP, a projected 5.4% deficit in 2026, and plans for €54 billion in adjustments to reach 5% in 2027 amid sluggish 0.5% growth. Political fragmentation in the National Assembly has complicated budget passage under Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu’s minority government, contributing to wider OAT-Bund spreads above 110 basis points and higher borrowing costs. However, France’s status as a major euro-area economy, substantial domestic debt holdings, average debt maturity near eight years, and expected ECB backstop make outright default by late 2027 highly improbable. Trader consensus reflected in the 93.4% “No” price aligns with assessments that ongoing consolidation efforts and institutional safeguards will avert insolvency, even if rating reviews and yields remain under scrutiny through the 2027 presidential cycle.
规则
如果法国政府在市场创建至 2027年12月31日, 23:59 ET 之间的任何时间，未能支付任何法国政府票据、债券或国库券的预定款项，则该市场将结算为“是”。否则，本市场将以“否”结算。 如果 Standard & Poor’s、Moody’s 或 Fitch 在符合条件的期间公开将任何法国主权债务归类为违约，则将符合结算为“是”的条件。 结算来源将为法国国库（Agence France Trésor）、Standard & Poor’s、Moody’s 和 Fitch 的官方信息。
机器翻译。如有争议，以原文为准。