- 法尔西岛会在 10月31日 前不再受伊朗控制吗？<1¢<1%
- 法尔西岛会在 12月31日 前不再受伊朗控制吗？5¢5%
Ongoing US-Iran military tensions in the Persian Gulf, centered on the Strait of Hormuz, have produced repeated strikes on Iranian military and oil facilities since February 2026, including recent reported US actions near Qeshm Island, Bandar-e Jask, and Kharg Island. These operations have targeted air defenses, naval bases, and related infrastructure, with Iranian sources confirming explosions, drone intercepts, and damage to support sites while noting repairs and continued IRGC operations at nearby bases. Farsi Island, a small IRGC naval outpost, has not faced reported occupation, seizure, or transfer of primary governmental or military authority. Diplomatic disputes over other Gulf islands persist without altering control of Farsi. Upcoming developments, such as further strikes, naval movements, or ceasefire talks, could influence outcomes, though current evidence points to sustained Iranian control absent a major escalation involving ground forces.
规则
如果在指定日期 23:59 ET 前，法尔西岛不再由伊朗控制，此市场将以“是”结算。否则，本市场将以“否”结算。 “不再由伊朗控制”是指伊朗不再对法尔西岛行使主要的政府或军事控制权，并且另一个国家、占领军或获得国际支持的当局已在该岛建立控制。 临时袭击、零星登陆、特种行动、轰炸、破坏活动、近海海军存在，或伊朗活动受到暂时干扰，单独而言均不符合条件。 如果没有实际建立控制权，仅仅宣布、威胁或声称伊朗已失去控制权，均不符合条件。 如果控制权因谈判达成的协议、停火条款、投降或移交协议而发生变化，则只有在该岛上实际建立控制权后，才符合条件。 如果在结算日期，法尔西岛的控制权仍有争议、情况不明，或尚未充分确立，则不符合条件，此市场将以“否”结算。 主要结算依据将是相关政府和军方的官方声明，以及可信报道所形成的共识。
机器翻译。如有争议，以原文为准。