- 2027年前中国和菲律宾会发生军事冲突吗？24¢24%
Tensions between China and the Philippines remain elevated due to repeated coast guard and maritime militia confrontations near Second Thomas Shoal, Scarborough Shoal, and other features in the South China Sea, including water-cannon incidents, obstructions of resupply and medical missions, and a near-doubling of Chinese vessels monitored in September. Both governments have signaled restraint, with Chinese officials stressing a preference for peace and the Philippines suspending military hotlines while pursuing diplomatic protests and Code of Conduct negotiations ahead of a year-end deadline. The Philippines’ mutual defense arrangements with the United States and joint patrols with allies further discourage direct armed clashes between national militaries. Traders appear to view these dynamics as sustaining grey-zone competition rather than triggering a full military clash before 2027.
规则
如果在市场创建至 2026年12月31日、23:59 ET 期间，中国（中华人民共和国）与菲律宾的军事力量发生军事冲突，此市场将判定为“是”。否则，本市场将以“否”结算。 “军事冲突”指任何涉及使用武力的事件，例如使用近战武器、导弹袭击、炮击、交火，或中国与菲律宾军事力量之间其他形式的直接军事交战。非暴力行动，例如警告射击、向无人居住地区炮击，或导弹发射后落入领海或穿越空域，均不足以使此市场判定为“是”。故意撞击船只并造成重大损坏（例如船体出现破洞），或一艘船击沉另一艘军舰，将纳入判定“是”的考量；但轻微损坏（刮痕、凹痕）则不予考虑。 注意：中国海警（CCG）属于军方，但菲律宾海岸警卫队（PCG）不属于军方。 本市场的结算依据将是可信报道形成的共识。
机器翻译。如有争议，以原文为准。