- 英格兰银行会在2026年加息吗？99¢
Market-implied odds for a Bank of England rate hike in 2026 stand at 94% for Yes, reflecting trader consensus on at least one 25-basis-point increase amid upside inflation risks. The primary driver is the energy price shock from Middle East tensions, which has lifted CPI projections toward 3.75% in Q4 2026 and slightly above 4% in early 2027, prompting markets to price a November hike to 4% from the current 3.75% level and additional tightening by year-end. Recent MPC communications highlight concerns over second-round wage and price effects, with hawkish members consistently favoring restriction. Realistic scenarios that could challenge the outcome include rapid de-escalation in energy markets, softer incoming data showing contained pass-through, or a shift in the MPC's risk assessment toward patience at the November meeting.
规则
如果英格兰银行的 Bank Rate 在市场创建至 2026年12月31日, 23:59 ET 期间的任何时候上调，本市场将判定为“是”。否则，此市场将判定为“否”。 必须等到 2026年12月31日, 23:59 ET 过后，本市场才能判定为“否”。 本市场的主要判定来源为英格兰银行官方网站（https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/），但也可以采用可信报道的一致结论。
机器翻译。如有争议，以原文为准。