- 到12月31日为止，Elon会再有一个孩子吗？11¢11%
Trader consensus heavily favors no additional Elon Musk child arriving by year-end, with the "No" outcome priced at 88.3%. Recent personal developments explain the positioning: Shivon Zilis, mother of four of his children, publicly announced their abrupt romantic split on October 2, 2026, while ongoing custody and support disputes with Ashley St. Clair (mother of Romulus, born 2024) continue in the courts. No credible reports or announcements indicate any partner is currently pregnant or expecting a delivery in the remaining weeks of 2026, despite Musk’s public emphasis on population growth. The short timeline to December 31 leaves little room for an unannounced birth, and recent media focus on family documentaries and legal matters has not surfaced new developments that would shift sentiment. Key near-term catalysts include any direct statements from known partners or unexpected announcements, though the current information flow supports the market’s strong lean.
规则
如果在市场创建至 2026年12月31日, 23:59 ET 之间，埃隆·马斯克又有一名子女一事得到确认，此市场将判定为“是”。否则，本市场将以“否”结算。 任何由埃隆·马斯克明确声称是其子女，或经可信报道普遍确认是其子女的人，都符合资格。 符合条件的怀孕公告也将计入。 本市场的结算来源将是埃隆·马斯克提供的信息，以及可信报道的普遍共识。
机器翻译。如有争议，以原文为准。