- 土耳其會在 2026 年安排提前舉行總統選舉嗎？8¢8%
Traders price a 92% chance against Turkey scheduling early presidential elections in 2026 because the ruling AKP-MHP alliance and its advisers are focused on a narrowly timed 2028 vote rather than any immediate snap election. Recent statements from presidential adviser Mehmet Ucum indicate the 2028 elections will likely shift to March or April to activate Article 116 of the constitution, allowing President Erdogan a third term if parliament approves an early call with a 360-vote supermajority. MHP leader Devlet Bahceli has echoed calls for parliament to act at an “appropriate time” to enable this path. The coalition currently holds roughly 326–331 seats and remains short of the required threshold, needing cross-party support that has not materialized. No major political crisis, economic trigger, or official announcement has emerged in recent weeks to justify a 2026 vote, while opposition fragmentation—stemming from court rulings on the CHP, party splits, and legal cases against figures such as Ekrem Imamoglu—reduces immediate pressure for a snap contest. Polling continues to show Erdogan leading potential challengers, consistent with the absence of urgency for elections before year-end. This setup aligns with the trader consensus reflected in the 92% “No” probability.
規則
如果土耳其在市場建立至 2026年12月31日 下午11:59 ET 期間，正式宣布將於目前預定的 2028 年土耳其總統大選之前舉行提前總統大選，則本市場將判定為「是」。否則，此市場將以「否」結算。 符合條件的公告必須是由土耳其政府、土耳其總統府、土耳其大國民議會或土耳其最高選舉委員會（YSK）正式發布的公開公告，並確立、批准、排定或正式啟動一場將於目前預定的 2028 年大選之前舉行的總統大選。 政治人物、政黨、媒體或評論人士對提前大選的討論、提議、協商、猜測或呼籲，若沒有採取正式行動來排定或啟動此類選舉，則不符合條件。 如果在結算日期之前正式宣布舉行提前總統大選，無論該選舉之後是否延期、取消或最終舉行，本市場均將判定為「是」。 本市場的主要結算依據為土耳其政府機關或土耳其最高選舉委員會（YSK）的官方資訊；但也可採用可信報導的一致結論。
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