- 特朗普會在2027年前辭職嗎？2¢2%
Traders assign a 97.8% implied probability to Donald Trump completing 2026 without resigning or facing removal, reflecting the absence of active impeachment proceedings, sustained 25th Amendment invocations, or public signals of voluntary departure during his second term. Constitutional thresholds for Senate conviction or cabinet-driven incapacity remain high, and no verified health or incapacity developments have emerged to alter this assessment. Upcoming November 2026 midterms could shift congressional dynamics, yet historical patterns show limited immediate impact on early exits. Realistic scenarios that might still move odds include acute medical events, sustained bipartisan support for removal following major scandals, or unforeseen leadership decisions post-election.
規則
如果美國總統唐納·川普在 2026年12月31日, 下午11:59 ET 前宣布他已辭職或將辭去總統職務，這個市場將結算為「是」。否則，此市場將以「否」結算。 如果唐納·川普已不可能辭職或宣布辭職（例如因其他原因被免職等），這個市場將立即結算為「否」。 這個市場要結算為「是」，只需要川普宣布他已辭職或將辭職。他是否真的辭職，不會影響此市場的結算。 此市場結算的主要依據將是美國聯邦政府的官方資訊；不過，也會參考可信報導所形成的共識。
機器翻譯。如有爭議，以原文為準。