- Tesla 會在12月31日之前於加州推出無人計程車嗎？4¢4%
Tesla's lack of California driverless permits from the DMV and CPUC drives the 95% market-implied odds against a robotaxi launch by year-end. The company operates only supervised rides with a safety driver in the Bay Area under a basic charter-party carrier permit, while holding no autonomous vehicle testing or deployment approvals and having submitted negligible test miles for regulatory credit. Regulators distinguish clearly between Level 2 Full Self-Driving and true unsupervised operation, and a new state law adds emergency-response requirements that take effect later. Tesla continues expanding unsupervised service in Texas and Florida metros instead, with customer unsupervised FSD now targeted for Q2 2027. An unexpected fast-track approval in the remaining weeks remains possible but faces substantial procedural and data hurdles.
規則
如果 Tesla 最遲於 2026年12月31日 下午11:59 ET 在加州公開推出自駕計程車服務，此市場將結算為「是」。否則，此市場將以「否」結算。 任何向一般大眾提供、且運作時不由人類駕駛者主動控制車輛的計程車服務，無論是否有會員資格或其他財務限制，均計入。 僅限 Tesla 員工或無法讓一般大眾使用的有限測試群組使用的服務不符合資格。 本市場將依據可信報導的共識進行判定。
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