- Jeff Bezos 會在 2028 年前前往太空嗎？23¢23%
Blue Origin’s suspension of New Shepard suborbital tourism flights since January 2026, with the pause extending at least two years to redirect resources toward lunar landers and New Glenn orbital missions, forms the main driver behind the 74.5% market-implied probability that Jeff Bezos will not reach space again before 2028. Company statements emphasize routine cargo delivery and Artemis program support over crewed suborbital operations, while recent October 2026 updates detail New Glenn recovery timelines after the May test explosion and infrastructure expansions without referencing personal flights for the founder. Historical patterns show Bezos’s sole prior trip occurred in 2021, and no verified crew manifests or mission announcements place him aboard upcoming vehicles through the forecast window. Trader consensus reflects these operational priorities and the absence of near-term personal flight indicators.
規則
如果 Jeff Bezos 在市場建立至 2027年12月31日, 下午11:59 ET 期間，實際搭乘任何抵達或越過美國太空界線的航空器或航太器，本市場將判定為「是」。否則，此市場將以「否」結算。 美國太空門檻的定義是平均海平面以上 50 英里。Jeff Bezos 是否越過國際公認的卡門線，不會影響本市場的判定結果。 此市場結算的主要依據將是可信報導所形成的共識。
機器翻譯。如有爭議，以原文為準。