- 民主黨會贏下所有「core four」參議院選舉嗎？55¢55%
The market's near-even odds reflect tight polling averages in Maine and Michigan, where Democratic challengers Troy Jackson and Abdul El-Sayed hold slim leads over Republican incumbents Susan Collins and Mike Rogers, balanced against clearer Democratic advantages for Jon Ossoff in Georgia and Roy Cooper in North Carolina. Recent surveys show these four races remain sensitive to turnout among swing voters, economic concerns, and candidate-specific dynamics in the final week before the November 3 election. Strong Democratic performance in the two toss-ups would secure all four wins, while any slippage in Maine or Michigan could prevent a sweep despite favorable positioning elsewhere. Fundraising edges, advertising volume, and voter enthusiasm in these battlegrounds continue to shape trader assessments of the outcome.
規則
如果代表民主黨的候選人在喬治亞州、密西根州、北卡羅來納州和緬因州的 2026 年美國參議院期中選舉中勝出（包括任何第二輪選舉），此市場將以「是」結算。 若候選人是相關政黨提名的人選，即視為代表該政黨。民主黨提名人以外的候選人（例如綠黨、自由意志黨或獨立候選人）均不計入。以獨立候選人身分參選的人士不會被視為民主黨人，無論他們與該黨有任何關聯。 本市場的結算依據為 Associated Press、Fox News 和 NBC。三個來源都將所有相關選戰判定為同一位候選人勝出後，此市場即會結算。如果三個來源未將某場相關選戰都判定為同一位候選人勝出，此市場將依據選舉結果的官方認證進行結算。
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