- Apple 會在 2026 年向 CXMT 購買記憶體晶片嗎？21¢21%
Strong US political, regulatory, and supply constraints make a 2026 Apple-CXMT deal unlikely despite testing and memory shortages. Apple began qualifying CXMT DRAM in mid-2026 for potential limited use in China-market iPhones and MacBooks, driven by AI-fueled DRAM shortages that raised prices and prompted Apple price hikes on Macs and iPads. CXMT, China’s leading DRAM producer with roughly 10-11% global wafer share, offers off-the-shelf LPDDR5X and similar parts, but US rules bar custom co-design or significant tech transfer. The company sits on the Pentagon’s 1260H Chinese military companies list, triggering bipartisan Senate opposition and explicit Trump administration resistance from Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick. CXMT’s fabs ran near 95% utilization in 2026 with output largely pre-allocated to domestic buyers such as Huawei, Xiaomi, and ByteDance through at least 2027, leaving minimal capacity for new international customers. Reported pricing has been comparable to or above Samsung, SK hynix, and Micron levels, removing the cost incentive. While HP and Acer have used CXMT parts in some non-US laptops, Apple has not announced any purchase or supply agreement as of late October 2026, and new CEO John Ternus has only kept options open without committing. These barriers—regulatory approval uncertainty, capacity limits, and export restrictions—explain trader consensus favoring “No” at 79.5% implied probability. Key near-term catalysts include any White House policy shift or confirmed qualification results, but year-end timing reduces the chance of meaningful 2026 volume.
規則
據《金融時報》報導，Apple 已向美國政府申請許可，打算向長鑫存儲（ChangXin Memory Technologies，CXMT）採購記憶體晶片。您可以在此閱讀更多相關資訊：https://www.ft.com/content/d72a25e2-7bde-4aa9-bd8d-0c4f3d6cb2cb?syn-25a6b1a6=1。 若 Apple 或該公司的官方代表在 2026年12月31日 ET 之前宣布將使用、購買或採購 CXMT 的記憶體晶片，本市場將判定為「是」。否則，此市場將以「否」結算。 在本市場期限內作出的符合條件的公告，即足以判定為「是」，無論 CXMT 之後是否向 Apple 供貨，或何時供貨。 若另有確認指出 Apple 在 2026年12月31日、下午11:59 ET 之前已向 CXMT 購買任何產品或零組件、同意購買、簽訂相關供應協議，或開始向其採購，本市場也將判定為「是」。 本市場判定的主要依據將是 Apple 和／或其官方代表發布的官方資訊；不過，也會參考可信報導所形成的共識。
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