- 2027 年之前會有任何 5 級颶風在美國登陸嗎？3¢3%
The 2026 Atlantic hurricane season's pronounced suppression under developing El Niño conditions, which have elevated vertical wind shear across the main development region, stands as the dominant factor behind the 95.9% market-implied probability of no Category 5 landfall in the conterminous United States before 2027. Only one hurricane, Isaias, has formed so far, making landfall as a Category 2 near Destin, Florida, in mid-October amid hostile steering and shear patterns. Historical records show just four such intense U.S. mainland strikes since 1851, underscoring their rarity even in active seasons. With the season nearing its close and official outlooks from NOAA and Colorado State University favoring below-normal activity through November, only an anomalous late-season rapid intensification over unusually warm Gulf waters could alter the outcome.
規則
就本市場而言，5級颶風是指最高持續風速達到或超過 157 mph 的颶風，如 https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php 所述；颶風登陸則是指颶風的地表中心與海岸線相交，如 https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL 所述。 若有任何風暴以 5 級颶風的強度在美國本土相連部分登陸，且該情況載於市場建立至 2026年12月31日、下午11:59 ET 之間國家颶風中心的官方公告（https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?）中，則本市場將結算為「是」。否則，此市場將判定為「否」。 本市場可根據 NHC 發布的首份公告進行結算，以判定是否有風暴以 5 級強度在美國本土連 contiguous 地區登陸，不受任何可能與最初符合條件的公告相矛盾的後續撤回或分析影響。不過，若後續更正或更新指出發生了符合條件的事件，則會予以考量。
機器翻譯。如有爭議，以原文為準。