- 2026 年底美國經濟會過熱嗎？85¢85%
- 2026 年底美國經濟會處於軟著陸狀態嗎？12¢12%
- 2026 年底美國經濟會有閒置產能嗎？<1¢<1%
- 2026 年底美國經濟會陷入停滯性通膨嗎？<1¢<1%
- 9%85.3%經濟過熱（失業率 <5.0%，通膨率 ≥3.5%）成交量 $5萬
- 8%11.8%軟著陸（失業率：<5.0%，通脹率：<3.5%）成交量 $5.6萬
- 0.2%經濟疲軟（失業率 ≥5.0%，通膨 <3.5%）成交量 $1.1萬
Strong growth, a tight labor market, and energy-driven price pressures are keeping the U.S. economy on track for an overheating scenario by year-end 2026, as reflected in the 88.2% market-implied probability for unemployment below 5.0% paired with inflation at or above 3.5%. Latest data show the unemployment rate at 4.2% in September 2026, with readings holding in the 4.1–4.3% range for months and payroll growth remaining positive though moderating. This level sits well below the 5.0% threshold and signals continued labor market tightness supported by resilient consumer spending and business investment, particularly in AI-related areas. At the same time, headline CPI reached 3.7% year-over-year in September (up from 3.4% in August), driven largely by a sharp rise in energy prices—gasoline alone contributed significantly to the monthly gain—with the energy index up over 20% year-over-year. Core CPI (excluding food and energy) stood at 2.6%, indicating underlying pressures remain sticky. Q3 GDP growth accelerated to a 3.4% annualized rate, with private domestic final purchases rising at a robust 4.9% pace, underscoring demand strength that is sustaining both employment and price momentum. The Federal Reserve has held the federal funds rate in the 3.75–4.00% range while noting elevated inflation and a “strong” economy, with markets pricing in a high likelihood of further tightening by year-end. With only about two months remaining until December 31, 2026, and no major near-term catalysts expected to push unemployment to or above 5.0% or rapidly bring headline inflation below 3.5%, trader consensus heavily favors the overheating outcome. The very low probabilities assigned to slack or stagflation scenarios reflect the absence of recessionary signals or broad labor-market deterioration in recent releases.
規則
失業率定義為美國勞工統計局在《就業情勢》報告中公布的經季節性調整失業率（失業總人數占民間勞動力的百分比，稱為 U-3）。通膨率定義為美國勞工統計局在《消費者物價指數》報告中公布的全體都市消費者消費者物價指數（CPI-U），未經季節性調整，按月數計算的百分比變化，月數：12。 本市場將根據公布的 2026 年 12 月失業率和通膨率進行結算。 如果截至 2027年1月31日 下午11:59 ET，2026 年 12 月通膨率或 2026 年 12 月失業率尚未公布，本市場將根據 2026 年 12 月之前某個月份該比率最近公布且可取得的數值進行結算。 如果失業率低於 5.0%，且通膨率低於 3.5%，本市場將結算為「軟著陸（失業率 <5.0%，通膨 <3.5%）」。 如果失業率大於或等於 5.0%，且通膨率大於或等於 3.5%，本市場將結算為「停滯性通膨（失業率 ≥5.0%，通膨 ≥3.5%）」。 如果失業率低於 5.0%，且通膨率大於或等於 3.5%，本市場將結算為「經濟過熱（失業率 <5.0%，通膨 ≥3.5%）」。 如果失業率大於或等於 5.0%，且通膨率低於 3.5%，本市場將結算為「經濟疲軟（失業率 ≥5.0%，通膨 <3.5%）」。 本市場的結算來源為美國勞工統計局，具體而言是其《就業情勢》和《消費者物價指數》報告。
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