- 到2026年12月31日之前會有美國銀行倒閉嗎？85¢
US bank failure by December 31, 2026? With six FDIC-insured institutions already closed in 2026—totaling roughly $1.45 billion in assets, led by Nano Banc’s $736 million September failure—the market’s 55% implied probability for “No” reflects the banking sector’s overall resilience despite elevated small-bank stress. The FDIC’s problem-bank list rose to 52 institutions (1.1% of supervised banks) with $66.3 billion in assets, driven by commercial real estate delinquencies and higher-for-longer rates, yet this remains well below historical crisis levels. Large banks passed the 2026 DFAST stress tests with only a 1.6 percentage point aggregate CET1 decline to 11.2%, enabling increased capital returns, while industry net income reached $90.1 billion in Q2 and capital/liquidity metrics stayed strong. With just 2.5 months left and failures occurring at irregular intervals, traders price limited near-term resolution risk absent a sharp deterioration in CRE or liquidity conditions.
規則
如果在此市場建立至所列日期 下午11:59 ET 期間，任何美國銀行倒閉，此市場將判定為「是」（依據 FDIC 的「Failed Bank List」）。否則，此市場將以「否」結算。 若要使此市場判定為「是」，FDIC 所列的銀行關閉日期必須落在此市場上文指定的時間範圍內。如果此市場的時間範圍內可能有銀行倒閉，而 FDIC 的「Failed Bank List」尚未更新，此市場可能會保持開放，以便等待名單更新。 此市場的主要判定來源為 Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation（FDIC），具體而言是此處提供的「Failed Bank List」：https://www.fdic.gov/resources/resolutions/bank-failures/failed-bank-list/；不過，FDIC 和政府機構發布的其他官方聲明也足以作為依據。
機器翻譯。如有爭議，以原文為準。