- 會在 12月31日 前因螺旋蠅蛆宣布國家緊急狀態嗎？14¢14%
Recent confirmation of the first U.S. wildlife case of New World screwworm (Cochliomyia hominivorax) in a Texas elk, alongside 65 total animal detections in Texas and New Mexico with 12 still active as of late October 2026, has heightened trader focus on potential federal emergency declarations. USDA-APHIS data show the outbreak began with a June 2026 calf case and has prompted infested zones, expanded fly trapping, and wildlife surveillance, though officials classify it as contained rather than a full outbreak. CDC assessments rate human risk as very low to low, with historical eradication from the U.S. in the 1960s via sterile insect techniques providing context for current control efforts. Key upcoming factors include ongoing case reporting, border port reopenings, and any new detections that could trigger extraordinary emergency authority.
規則
若美國聯邦政府在指定日期的 下午11:59 ET 前，正式宣布國家緊急狀態或特別緊急狀態，或運用其他緊急權限，因應美國牲畜爆發螺旋蠅（Cochliomyia hominivorax）疫情而宣布國家危機，本市場將判定為「是」。否則，此市場將判定為「否」。 未正式宣布緊急狀態的聲明、演說、社群媒體貼文、命令草案及行政命令均不符合資格。 既有國家緊急狀態的續期或延長均不符合資格，除非文本經實質修改，明確提及螺旋蠅。 主要判定來源為《聯邦公報》以及白宮、農業部、農業部長或其他聯邦部門或機構的官方刊物；但亦可採用可信報導所形成的共識。
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