- OpenAI 會在 2027 年之前宣布已實現 AGI 嗎？9¢
Strong trader consensus behind the 91.5% market-implied probability for “No” stems from OpenAI’s lack of any formal announcement claiming AGI achievement, even after the September 2026 launch of GPT-6 Astra. Leadership rhetoric, including President Greg Brockman’s “Welcome to the AGI era” remarks and personal view that “we’re there,” stopped short of the company’s own definition of a system outperforming humans at most economically valuable work. CEO Sam Altman stated in August that OpenAI was “not quite yet” at AGI while projecting an internal system by year-end 2026. Independent evaluations, such as ARC-AGI-3 scores varying sharply by harness and expert skepticism from the ARC Prize Foundation, reinforce that current large language models and agentic capabilities have not crossed widely accepted AGI thresholds. Realistic scenarios that could still shift odds include a surprise formal declaration tied to undisclosed internal progress or a new model release before December 31, 2026.
規則
如果 OpenAI 或該公司的官方代表在 2026年12月31日 ET 前宣布已創造出通用人工智慧（AGI），此市場將以「是」結算。否則，此市場將以「否」結算。 此市場結算的主要依據將是 OpenAI 和／或其官方代表發布的官方資訊；不過，也會參考可信報導所形成的共識。
機器翻譯。如有爭議，以原文為準。