- 如果 Nothing 有一天發生：十一月88¢88%
Trader consensus assigns an 88.5% implied probability to "Nothing" because no major diplomatic breakthroughs, military escalations, or leadership transitions have materialized or appear imminent within the November resolution window. Ongoing conflicts show no verified ceasefire agreements or new invasions, while scheduled U.S. midterm elections on November 3 involve standard congressional and gubernatorial contests without triggering defined resolution criteria such as regime changes or nuclear events. Recent polling trends and campaign activity remain consistent with historical midterm patterns, offering no evidence of sudden shifts that would alter the low probability of the specified high-impact outcomes. Traders weigh the absence of fresh catalysts against the potential for late-breaking developments, yet current evidence supports the elevated likelihood of no qualifying events.
規則
若在 2026年11月1日, 上午12:00 ET 至 2026年11月30日, 下午11:59 ET 期間符合以下任一條件，本市場將判定為「Something」： - WTI 原油（WTI）達到 ↑ $150 - Bitcoin 創下歷史新高 - 任何一位 G7 領袖下台（卡尼、馬克宏、梅爾茨、梅洛尼、高市、伯納姆、川普） - 美國與伊朗達成最終核協議 - 俄羅斯與烏克蘭停火 - 普丁不再擔任俄羅斯總統 - 澤倫斯基不再擔任烏克蘭總統 - 曼德海峽實際上遭到封鎖 - 荷姆茲海峽的交通恢復正常 否則，此市場將判定為「Nothing」。 本市場的完整規則請見此處： https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/market_products/NEH/November_NEH.pdf
機器翻譯。如有爭議，以原文為準。