- Nicolás Maduro 會在 2026年12月31日 前獲釋嗎？5¢5%
Nicolás Maduro remains in U.S. federal custody in New York following his January 3, 2026, capture by U.S. special forces during a nighttime raid in Caracas. He and his wife Cilia Flores face multiple charges, including narco-terrorism conspiracy, cocaine importation, weapons offenses, and a later superseding indictment alleging conspiracy to commit torture of political rivals and Americans. Both pleaded not guilty in recent proceedings, with the next court date set for March 2027 and a potential trial in June 2027. Trader sentiment on release timelines reflects the standard pace of complex federal cases involving extradited foreign nationals, where pretrial detention is common pending resolution. No major diplomatic negotiations or health-related motions for Maduro’s release have advanced publicly, though Flores’s attorneys have cited her heart condition in a separate bid for home confinement. Venezuela’s interim government under Delcy Rodríguez has prioritized U.S. engagement on oil matters over pressing for his return, limiting near-term political catalysts. Upcoming procedural milestones, such as further hearings or any plea discussions, represent the primary variables that could shift probabilities before the 2027 trial window.
規則
如果 Nicolás Maduro 在所列日期的 下午11:59 ET 前獲釋，則此市場的結算結果為「是」。否則，此市場將以「否」結算。 如果 Nicolás Maduro 獲釋但仍被軟禁，此市場仍將結算為「是」。 如果 Nicolás Maduro 獲准假釋、交保，或以任何其他會使其脫離國家羈押的條件獲釋，此市場將結算為「是」。 將 Nicolás Maduro 移送至另一個羈押地點（例如矯正體系內的另一所監獄、法院或醫院），不足以使此市場結算為「是」。 為了在法院或國會作證等目的而暫時離開監獄，只要仍由矯正機關羈押，就不算獲釋。 此市場的主要判定依據將是政府機關或矯正部門發布的官方資訊；但也可採用可信新聞報導所形成的共識。
機器翻譯。如有爭議，以原文為準。