- John Thune會成為下一任美國參議院少數黨領袖嗎？65¢65%
- Chuck Schumer會成為下一任美國參議院少數黨領袖嗎？20¢20%
- John Barrasso會成為下一任美國參議院少數黨領袖嗎？6¢6%
- Rick Scott會成為下一任美國參議院少數黨領袖嗎？4¢4%
- Tom Cotton會成為下一任美國參議院少數黨領袖嗎？4¢4%
- Mark Kelly會成為下一任美國參議院少數黨領袖嗎？3¢3%
- Patty Murray會成為下一任美國參議院少數黨領袖嗎？1¢1%
- Brian Schatz會成為下一任美國參議院少數黨領袖嗎？<1¢<1%
- Cory Booker會成為下一任美國參議院少數黨領袖嗎？<1¢<1%
Trader consensus positions John Thune as the clear frontrunner for next Senate Minority Leader at 69 percent implied probability, reflecting his established Republican leadership role and positioning after recent electoral shifts that could alter majority control. Chuck Schumer follows at 22.5 percent amid Democratic caucus dynamics and historical patterns of incumbent retention in opposition. Lower odds for alternatives such as John Barrasso at 7 percent and Rick Scott at 3.6 percent signal limited support for competing Republican figures. A broad field of other candidates clusters near 50 percent, underscoring uncertainty in internal party negotiations and potential leadership transitions. Scheduled caucus votes and any post-election announcements could still influence final outcomes within the resolution window.
規則
本市場將根據在 2026年11月3日 美國大選後召開的國會中，獲選為首任參議院少數黨領袖的人選進行結算。 如果截至 2027年6月30日 下午11:59 ET 尚未選出參議院少數黨領袖，本市場將結算為「其他」。 結算依據將是美國參議院的官方資訊，或相關政黨黨團組織的官方公告；不過，也可採用可信報導的一致結論。
機器翻譯。如有爭議，以原文為準。